Dust settles on redistricting (Part 1)

On Thursday, the San Diego Citizen’s Redistricting Commission finalized its preliminary draft of the new council districts. We can now say a few things with confidence.

  1. Todd Gloria will be moving. Gloria was drawn out of the old District 3. There was some speculation that he would stay put and run for the new 9th council district, but those rumors were put to rest on Thursday when the Councilman tweeted, “My heart is in D3 and I intend to serve it, in whatever configuration, for another four years.” John Lamb pressed him on whether that meant he would move to stay in the 3rd and Gloria replied in the affirmative. The announcement was bad news for would-be candidates who had been eyeing the solidly Democratic seat. Councilman Gloria has been a responsive and productive member of the City Council and he will be for another four years.
  2. Marti Emerald will be moving too, but for different reasons. Marti Emerald wasn’t drawn out of her 7th City Council district, but she’ll probably be moving nonetheless. The old 7th district had a Democratic voter registration advantage of 40% to 32%. The new 7th loses the College Area, City Heights, El Cerrito, Oak Park, Rolando and Redwood Village and adds parts of the Lorie Zapf’s old 6th district, most notably Mission Valley and Linda Vista. These additions and subtraction turn the Democratic-leaning district Emerald won by a razor-thin margin in 2008 into a true toss-up or potentially Republican-leaning. Her 2008 opponent, April Boling, lives in San Carlos, which is in the new 7th.The safer play might be to move south and run for the new 9th district. The district tracks relatively well with the proposed second Latino empowerment district. However, the Redistricting Commission curiously attached the College Area and surrounding neighborhoods, which could potentially curb the influence of Latino and immigrant communities in City Heights. The good news for Emerald is that northern neighborhoods in the new 9th are the southern districts of old 7th; giving her a decided advantage over any newcomer in what should be a solidly Democratic district. There’s also the added bonus of being able to serve two terms in the new district, if she was so inclined and the voters obliged. The Councilwoman is already selling her home in Tierra Santa, so the time might be right to move to the other side of the Interstate 8.
  3. Districts 1 and 2 will continue to be battlegrounds. Sherri Lightner’s 1st Council district maintains most of its shape, losing only the more conservative eastern neighborhoods of Torrey Highlands, Rancho Penasquitos, and Black Mountain Ranch. Voter registration in the old 1st was a dead heat, so the new 1st should swing in favor of Democrats, but only slightly. Like Emerald, Lightner was elected by a slim margin in 2008, but she has built deep roots between her Council office and the community groups that originally propelled her to victory. She should be able to cash in that hard work in 2012, but 2016 is anybody’s game. A Democrat should already be representing the old 2nd District. Unfortunately, the 37% to 29% Democratic voter registration advantage looks better on paper than it does at the polls, as was evident in 2006 when Lorena Gonzalez lost a close race to Kevin Faulconer. A voter registration advantage of that size should be nearly impossible to overcome, but low Democratic turnout and a Faulconer fundraising advantage of more than 4-1 proved fatal. You can blame it on the low turnout from young voters in Pacific Beach or the traditional decline in voter turnout during mid-term elections. No matter how you choose to explain it, District 2 is always closer than it should be. The new map makes District 2 a true toss up. Gone are the Democratic voters in Mission Hills, Bankers Hill, Downtown, Little Italy and parts of La Jolla. Added are Morena, Bay Ho, and half of Clairemont. Not only will these new boundaries make the district more conservative, but it will also shift the political powerbase away from Downtown and into Point Loma and the beach communities. The fundraising and organizing strategy of candidates in the new District 2 will change a lot more than one might expect in response to this shift. It’ll be a toss up, but the dust still needs to settle on the new politics.
  4. Districts 3, 4, 8 and 9 will be Democratic. District 5 will be Republican.

Later this week, we’ll be covering the rest of what we’ve learned.

By Jason Everitt

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One Response to Dust settles on redistricting (Part 1)

  1. alger says:

    Lorena Gonzalez lost to Kevin Faulconer because the vote was held in a special election in January. The turnout was significantly lower than that which would have been expected in a regularly scheduled election, even a mid-term primary election.

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